When a glide bomb exploded at an industrial facility in Zaporizhzhia on Jan. 8, the 13 lifeless, and 122 injured marked the very best variety of civilian casualties in a Russian assault on Ukraine in nearly two years.
Regardless of being some of the primitive and quite a few weapons within the Russian Air Power's arsenal, Ukraine's refined, Western-supplied air protection techniques are nonetheless ill-equipped to take care of the risk they pose.
Compounding the issue, Russia continues to switch and adapt its glide bombs, growing their vary and damaging energy, that means increasingly more Ukrainian cities and cities are coming underneath risk.
"Aerial glide bombs have grow to be one of many best threats to civilians in cities alongside the frontline," Danielle Bell, head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), mentioned in an announcement on Jan. 9.
"They’re additionally one of many most important the reason why the variety of killed and injured in 2024 elevated by 30 per cent in contrast with 2023."
In accordance with HRMMU figures, Russian glide bombs killed 360 Ukrainian civilians in 2024, and injured 1,861, a threefold improve in fatalities, and a sixfold improve in accidents in comparison with 2023.
What's a glide bomb?
A glide bomb is a regular air-dropped bomb modified with wings and infrequently a satellite tv for pc navigation system, to allow them to be launched from a distance quite than instantly over a goal.
Their origins date again so far as World Struggle II, and have been utilized in conflicts since together with Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
Russian glide bombs are sometimes Soviet-era FAB weapons upgraded with a Unified Gliding and Correction Module (UMPK), which permits it to glide to its goal, however Moscow can also be growing newer, devoted variations.
Russian forces make use of numerous sizes of glide bombs weighing 250, 500, and 1,000 kilograms (kg). Probably the most highly effective in Russia's arsenal is the FAB-3000, a 3,000-kilogram high-explosive bomb, which the Russian Protection Ministry claimed in March had gone into mass manufacturing.
In July, it launched footage of what it mentioned was a FAB-3000 being dropped on Ukrainian territory for the primary time, saying it has a fight energy that "can’t be ignored."
Crucially, changing an unguided "dumb bomb" right into a glide bomb is affordable. Every conversion prices round $20,000, far lower than cruise and ballistic missiles that price hundreds of thousands of {dollars} to supply.
Russian forces started utilizing glide bombs towards Ukraine in early 2023 to compensate for the dearth of precision-guided munitions, dropping a whole lot every week, in accordance with figures from Kyiv.
Glide bombs are best towards static targets, together with bridges, command posts, bunkers, and weapons depots, and Russia has used them to nice impact on the entrance traces as they advance slowly in japanese Ukraine.
"Regardless of many issues and shortfalls, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) is studying, and adapting its ways in a continually altering fight surroundings," Federico Borsari, a fellow on the Middle for European Coverage Evaluation (CEPA), advised the Kyiv Unbiased.
However Moscow has additionally used them to devastating impact towards Ukrainian inhabitants facilities, with Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts notably exhausting hit.
The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova
Why are glide bombs so harmful?
Glide bombs are highly-destructive, and extremely troublesome to shoot down.
"Glide bombs, in contrast to missiles, should not have a propulsion system, in order that they don't generate a lot warmth and are subsequently largely proof against interception by infrared homing missiles, just like the AIM-9 Sidewinder, or the FIM-92 Stinger," Jacob Parakilas, analysis chief in RAND Europe's Defence, Safety and Justice Analysis Group, advised the Kyiv Unbiased.
"Glide bombs […] are largely proof against interception by infrared homing missiles."
Parakilas mentioned anti-aircraft weapons just like the German-made Gepard are simpler at capturing down glide bombs, however their brief vary makes them ineffective at policing the a whole lot of miles of entrance line in Ukraine.
"The restricted vary of these techniques implies that they must be proper on prime of the goal, and in a position to establish and open fireplace on it in a really brief time window — which is troublesome even when adequate numbers of these techniques have been obtainable," he mentioned.
The vary of the weapons additionally permits the Russian fighter jets that launch them to remain out of vary of Ukraine's superior air protection techniques such because the U.S.-supplied Patriot.
Ukraine did have a string of successes early final yr, downing a number of Russian army planes of the categories used to launch glide bombs.
However positioning air protection belongings so near the entrance traces is dangerous, and after Russian forces allegedly managed to destroy two Patriot launchers in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine seems to have deserted the tactic.
"Russia can exploit gaps in Ukraine's air protection, which is stretched skinny and must cowl a really giant territory," Borsari mentioned.
How are Russian glide bombs evolving?
Russia is consistently upgrading UMPK kits to extend the vary and accuracy of its glide bombs.
When interviewed by the Kyiv Unbiased in Might of final yr, specialists mentioned the vary of glide bombs being utilized by Russia was "usually thought of to not exceed 50-60 kilometers."
However within the months since, quite a few modifications imply newer fashions can now fly as much as 90 kilometers, putting many extra Ukrainian civilians inside their lethal attain.
Borsari mentioned that exact consideration must be paid to the comparatively new and extra superior UMPB-D-30SN system which, along with wings and a steerage system, additionally has a small jet-propulsion engine which extends the glide bomb's vary.
Then there are the enhancements to the digital techniques. Russian forces have been bettering the navigation techniques that information the UMPK by way of satellite tv for pc, permitting it to be extra correct.
They’re additionally usually outfitted with Kometa antennas which stabilize satellite tv for pc communications alerts, and are notably immune to digital warfare countermeasures.
How can Ukraine defeat the glide bomb risk?
In lieu of an efficient technique of focusing on glide bombs in flight, specialists say Ukraine's greatest choices are to focus on each the planes that drop them, in addition to the manufacturing and storage services they go by earlier than they're used.
"Ukraine's allies ought to prioritize rushing up the pipeline for delivering, supporting, and offering coaching for the crews of F-16s, which might goal and push again the Russian jets dropping glide bombs," Parakilas mentioned.
"Including different air protection fighters — as France has promised to do with the Mirage 2000 and Sweden has thought of with the Gripen — would additionally assist, though each new kind of plane added will increase the complexity of Ukraine's supporting infrastructure and provide chain," he added.
Ukraine's long-running, long-range drone strike marketing campaign has reportedly had successes focusing on websites the place Russia shops FAB bombs, most not too long ago in a sequence of strikes final week.
However their continued and widespread use suggests Ukraine can't presently destroy them at a fee faster than Russia can produce them.
"Within the long-term, one other risk is using directed-energy weapons, similar to lasers, that are being developed and examined in numerous international locations as a cheap countermeasure to aerial threats," Eken mentioned.
Nonetheless, the widespread deployment of such weapons is way off, and within the meantime, increasingly more Ukrainian cities and cities are more likely to come inside vary of Russia's ever-evolving glide bombs.
The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima