After a high-level U.S. go to to Belarus led to the discharge of 14 prisoners, observers have been left questioning what autocrat Alexander Lukashenko could have secured in return.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s particular envoy to Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg’s go to to Minsk on June 21 marked the highest-level diplomatic contact the remoted regime of Alexander Lukashenko had with the U.S. in years.
The journey was additionally marked by the releasing by the Lukashenko regime of 14 prisoners, together with one of the notable of Lukashenko's political opponents — Siarhei Tsikhanouski.
With the launched prisoners within the highlight, each events to the negotiations had been obscure relating to the outcomes of the assembly. However members of the Belarusian opposition in exile and political analysts all agreed Lukashenko was in search of some type of worldwide legitimacy, in addition to sanctions aid.
"For Lukashenko, the go to is a reasonably sturdy legitimizing step," mentioned Lesia Rudnik, the director of an exiled unbiased Belarusian assume tank, the Heart for New Concepts.
“I imagine we’re originally of a dialogue … however I believe we’ll see a fairly gradual growth of the state of affairs.”
Lukashenko has been ostracized by the West over his assist for Russia’s battle in opposition to Ukraine and brutal suppression of freedoms in Belarus. His worldwide contacts have been restricted to China, Vietnam, Iran, and African states which have minimal commerce turnover with Belarus, and, more and more, native Russian officers. The one Western nations which have so far damaged the diplomatic freeze are Russia-sympathetic EU states Hungary and Slovakia.
As for the U.S., analysts counsel Washington might have been trying to deter deeper Belarusian involvement within the battle, whereas additionally presumably securing a overseas coverage win for Trump amid stalled peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
Fastidiously choreographed breakthrough
The path to Kellogg’s top-level assembly in Minsk was blazed almost a 12 months in the past beneath the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden, with low-profile behind-the-scenes conferences and occasional prisoner releases.
Probably the most tangible results of Kellogg’s mission was the sudden releasing of 14 prisoners, together with Tsikhanouski, former RFE/RL journalist Ihar Karnei, and residents of Estonia, Latvia, and Poland, who had been launched from prisons in Belarus and delivered to neighboring Lithuania. U.S. President Donald Trump marked the discharge with a celebratory publish on his social media platform, Fact Social.
“President Trump now has the facility and alternative to free all political prisoners in Belarus identical to that. And I ask him to take action.”
As soon as seen as an unlikely candidate for early launch, Tsikhanouski was freed after serving 5 years of an almost 20-year sentence. Jailed forward of Belarus’s 2020 presidential election, his arrest prompted his spouse, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, to run in his place. Regardless of election observers discovering she had received the election, Lukashenko claimed victory, sparking mass protests in Belarus that lasted for months.
At a press convention in Vilnius following his launch, Tsikhanouski appealed to Trump to assist free different political prisoners in Belarus.
“President Trump now has the facility and alternative to free all political prisoners in Belarus identical to that. And I ask him to take action,” Tsikhanouski mentioned.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who, since being compelled into exile, has led the Belarusian opposition, hailed the releases, pledging to “proceed to work carefully with President Trump’s administration and with all our allies on either side of the Atlantic to attain the liberty of each political prisoner.”
European leaders, together with EU Fee President Ursula von der Leyen, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, Polish International Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, and others, additionally welcomed the U.S. diplomatic efforts and the releasing of the political prisoners.
Following 4 years of steady, harsh repression, Lukashenko all of a sudden pardoned 18 political prisoners in July 2024, then continued to launch small batches of political prisoners each month for half a 12 months. Tsikhanouski mentioned he had heard discuss of his potential launch in August 2024.
In February, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christopher W. Smith made an unannounced go to to Belarus, securing the discharge of a U.S. citizen and two Belarusian political prisoners.
John Coale, Kellogg’s deputy, throughout a low-profile go to to Minsk in Could facilitated the discharge of twin U.S.-Belarusian citizen Yuras Ziankovich. The sooner contacts paved the way in which for Kellogg’s high-profile go to, accompanied by Smith and Coale.
The publicity surrounding the go to signifies that the events “have reached a minimal stage of mutual belief,” commented Valery Kavaleuski, a former Belarusian diplomat and ex-member of Tsikhanouskaya’s shadow cupboard. He’s at the moment advocating for the discharge of political prisoners as the pinnacle of the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Company.
Restoring ties?
One factor Belarusian officers did sign was that they anticipate extra in return, together with full restoration of bilateral ties and sanctions aid.
Belarus’s everlasting consultant to the United Nations, Valentin Rybakov, on state-owned Belarusian tv after the Kellogg assembly, mentioned that Minsk seeks to “normalize” bilateral relations with the U.S., which might entail the complete resumption of embassy operations in each nations and exchanges of visits by officers.
The U.S. withdrew its diplomats and shut down embassy operations in Minsk in February 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which concerned the use by the Russian army of Belarusian territory. In response to Kavaleuski, the reopening of the embassy lies inside U.S. pursuits in observing and gathering info on the bottom. Reopening on the Cost d'Affaires stage, versus the ambassadorial stage, doesn’t suggest any formal recognition of Lukashenko’s legitimacy.
“With out Europe's participation, the ‘de-isolation’ of the Belarusian regime won’t be as efficient.”
On sanctions aid, Rybakov and Natallia Esismant, Lukashenko’s press secretary, famous that this had been among the many precedence matters of the dialogue. The New York Instances additionally reported that the matter was mentioned throughout Khristopher Smith’s go to to Belarus in February.
“In response to our info, Lukashenko is setting a situation for the lifting of the American sanctions on (potash producer) Belaruskali,” opposition activist and chief of the Folks’s Anti-Disaster Administration initiative, Pavel Latushka, instructed the Kyiv Unbiased.
“The second is the monetary sector, which allows monetary funds,” he added. “The third is the Belavia (…) plane fleet, which incorporates (Lukashenko’s) planes.”
In 2019, earlier than Belarus spiraled into political turmoil, potash, its prime export, introduced in roughly $2.9 billion in export revenues. After the EU and U.S. export restrictions had been put in place, Belarus’s share of the worldwide potash market dropped from 18% in 2021 to eight% in 2023, in response to the Worldwide Meals Coverage Analysis Institute. Round 5% of the market was misplaced in the USA.
“However with out Europe's participation, the ‘de-isolation’ of the Belarusian regime won’t be as efficient,” Rudnik from the Heart for New Concepts instructed the Kyiv Unbiased, noting that whereas the U.S. can cancel its personal sanctions, Washington must foyer for his or her aid in Europe.
Analysts agree that to revive the circulate of this significant export, Belarus must ease European sanctions and overcome opposition from Lithuania, residence to Klaipeda seaport, previously the chief transit hub for Belarusian potash.
Initially launched in 2021 for human rights abuses, European sanctions on Belarusian potash had been re-qualified as sanctions for Minsk’s assist for Russia’s battle in opposition to Ukraine, making them inconceivable to cancel till the battle ends, former diplomat Kavaleuski says, citing his latest exchanges in Brussels.
Belarus, in distinction, expects reciprocal steps and a "good-neighborly strategy” after releasing residents of Estonia, Latvia, and Poland, mentioned Belarus’s KGB Chief Ivan Tsertsel on state-run media, in an obvious reference to European opposition to sanctions aid. Notably, no Lithuanian residents had been included within the launch.
However the European Union has to this point proven no inclination to scale back restrictions on Lukashenko. Fairly the alternative: the 18th sanctions bundle, just lately blocked by Hungary and Slovakia, proposes to ban all transactions with Belarusian banks, additional tightening restrictions in opposition to Belarus.
"It’s Lukashenko who pushes Belarus nearer to Russia as a result of it’s comfy for him."
And Lithuania, one of many EU member states with the strongest voice on the Belarusian concern, sees no grounds for reconsidering sanctions but, in response to Lithuanian International Minister Kęstutis Budrys. Conscious of the potential for a veto by Hungary or Slovakia on Europe-wide sanctions, the Baltic state is growing laws for nationwide financial sanctions that would offer for the introduction of non-public and sectoral restrictions.
Whereas grateful for the discharge and eager for extra excellent news, the Belarusian opposition is cautious about rewarding the regime too quickly.
“Naturally, if the repression stops, and all of the prisoners are launched, it will open new potentialities, and one might discuss sure aid from the American sanctions,” Tsikhanouskaya’s advisor Viachorka says, including that at this level, just one.5% of the nation’s 1,100 political prisoners have been launched by U.S. mediation.
“There’s no belief in Lukashenko,” mentioned exiled activist Latushka, who is thought for his extra hawkish strategy to contacts with the Lukashenko regime.
“Over the 30 years of his rule, Lukashenko has repeatedly used this scheme of easing sanctions by making beauty concessions to the West.”
Latushka argues that sanctions must be eased solely after the discharge of all political prisoners, a halt to repression, and the decriminalization of political life throughout the nation. Even after that, restrictions must be suspended however not cancelled to make sure the potential of swift reinstatement in case of backsliding by Minsk, he mentioned.
However having launched 14 prisoners, Belarusian KGB Chief Tsertsel reported that one other 14 overseas and Belarusian residents had been arrested in Belarus on prices of espionage and excessive treason in 2025 — in an indication the regime's "conveyor belt" of repression has removed from slowed down.
Washington's curiosity in Minsk
Following his go to to Minsk, Kellogg shared that whereas his deputy John Coale led discussions on the discharge of prisoners, he had targeted on the Russia-Ukraine Battle.
“We all know Trump is, firstly, a dealmaker, and secondly, that success is essential to him,” Rudnik mentioned of the curiosity of the Trump administration in coping with Belarus.
“And when this doesn’t occur for a very long time, particularly when he promised a lot in his election marketing campaign, it turns into essential to compensate for the dearth of those victories with smaller victories, even perhaps quite a lot of them,” she mentioned.
Observers interviewed by the Kyiv Unbiased don’t imagine Belarus might function a reputable platform for the stalled Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations — an concept that has been floated by the Kremlin, however flatly rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over Belarus's complicity within the battle.
Without having despatched his troops into battle in Ukraine, Lukashenko let the Russian military use Belarusian territory to mount assaults on Ukraine at first of the invasion. He additionally reoriented the Belarusian military-industrial advanced to serve Russian protection contracts, in response to a latest report by the Belarusian opposition group Belpol.
Other than “scoring a win” simpler than stopping Russia’s battle, Washington could have warned Belarus in opposition to turning into extra deeply engaged within the Kremlin’s battle in opposition to Ukraine, or escalating tensions with the NATO and EU member states bordering Belarus, analysts counsel.
“Belarus is strategically positioned on NATO’s japanese flank between Russia and western states,” Tsikhanouskaya’s advisor Viachorka says. “The much less of a menace Belarus is, the much less protection spending for America.”
Belarus is ready to host the Zapad-2025 (West 2025) joint army drills with Russia in September. After the Russia-Belarus Union Resolve 2021 drills had been used to disguise the buildup of Russian troops forward of an all-out invasion, any joint drills in Belarus at the moment are seen as a critical trigger for concern amongst its neighbors.
In an obvious effort to assuage these fears, in Could, Belarusian Protection Minister Viktar Khrenin introduced the drills would contain fewer troops and can be held at a location farther from the border.
The Kellogg go to, Latushka believes, additionally had the goal of figuring out whether or not Lukashenko is able to altering his home or overseas coverage, and the extent of the Kremlin’s affect over him.
Americanist and advisor to the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Company Anton Penkovski instructed the Kyiv Unbiased that the Trump administration may be contemplating the probabilities for the “Finlandisation” of Belarus, a time period that means Minsk would loosen its army ties with Moscow with out absolutely breaking off ties.
And whereas having nothing to lose within the occasion of negotiations failing, U.S. diplomats may also have been investigating Lukashenko’s potential to behave independently and interact in separate negotiations within the occasion of Russia being weakened.
Certainly, Washington has a historical past of partaking with Minsk at occasions when tensions with Moscow heighten.
Viachorka, nonetheless, will not be so certain.
“We regularly hear the message that we have to save Lukashenko from Russia, together with from Belarusian propaganda,” he says. “However it’s Lukashenko who pushes Belarus nearer to Russia as a result of it’s comfy for him.”
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The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy