BRUSSELS — With the Socialists and liberals threatening to dam European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen’s agenda, an apparent query looms: Can’t she merely govern with the European Parliament’s right-wing majority?
Final week, the centrist coalition she has been counting on to move laws appeared near breaking level because of frustration over the efforts of von der Leyen’s center-right European Folks’s Social gathering to water down the EU’s inexperienced plans.
That has set the forces additional to the precise within the Parliament crowing over what they painting as their success in bringing the EPP on board with their agenda, enabling them to push by means of ideologically divisive measures on subjects such local weather and migration.
“Probably the most pure end result can be to have a right-wing majority” when agreeing the brand new regulation on deportations, mentioned Dutch MEP Marieke Ehlers, a number one member of the Patriots for Europe group engaged on that legislation.
“If the EPP had been to work with the left on this file, they’d find yourself with a proposal that’s weaker than what their very own commissioner has proposed, so I don’t actually see how they’d promote that to their voters,” she added.
However whereas von der Leyen may discover some marriages of comfort on environmental themes and immigration with the far proper, she would discover it nearly unimaginable to construct a workable legislative agenda with such fractured and disparate right-wing events. Some, for instance, are pro-Russian, others anti-Russian.
“They discover it very exhausting to agree. That, in flip, means they’re an unreliable companion for the EPP as a everlasting coalition,” mentioned Richard Corbett, a former British MEP and adviser to the European Council president.
German sensitivities
Von der Leyen additionally has explicit sensitivities as a German centrist politician, extremely aware of coming from a rustic formed by its Nazi previous, about coordinating laws with extremist nationalist events. If she had been to depend on the precise, she would typically discover herself allying with politicians who’re pro-Kremlin, anti-Ukraine, anti-LGBTQ+, anti-abortion and Euroskeptic — all anathema to her important beliefs.
Whereas there may be most likely extra room to cooperate with the European Conservatives and Reformists, dominated by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, it might be far tougher to see von der Leyen making common frequent trigger with the Patriots, whose large names embody Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and France’s Marine Le Pen. And any frequent coordination with the far-right Various for Germany (AfD) within the Europe of Sovereign Nations grouping would show particularly tough — though the EPP has already flirted with that possibility.
Working with the far proper is specifically delicate for von der Leyen, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz battling the AfD again in Berlin. Of the German Christian Democrat trio dominating Brussels, solely Manfred Weber, chief of the EPP, has relied on far-right votes within the Parliament.
“Weber is the one one. So von der Leyen is cautious, Merz could be very cautious for nationwide causes, and Weber, he’s the one one that actually doesn’t have any disgrace of cooperating with the far proper,” mentioned Sophia Russack, a researcher on the Centre for European Coverage Research.
Von der Leyen “clearly doesn’t wish to cater to the far proper, she has demonstrated that in her first time period. The bulk that she constructed most of her laws on was the middle left and proper, the centrist majority,” she added.
Wreckers not builders
Whereas the EPP can depend on a Parliamentary majority of assorted hues of right-wingers to assist shoot down recordsdata they don’t like — comparable to elements of the Inexperienced Deal — the symbiosis will likely be far harder in relation to assembling extra complicated laws just like the price range.
An instance of the perils of flirting with the far proper got here with the 2025 EU price range tips. The EPP had initially coordinated with its common allies the Socialists, liberals and Greens, however then shifted to working with the far proper together with the AfD to introduce tougher language on border obstacles and detention facilities.
After the EPP lurched proper, the Socialists, liberals and Greens determined to vote in opposition to the textual content as an entire, alongside the Patriots, who regardless of their success in getting the migration amendments handed regarded the decision itself as “unacceptable.”
As Rasmus Andresen, an MEP from the Greens, put it on the time: “If you happen to like counting on the far proper, then possibly you’re going to get an modification handed, however you’ll not get the price range handed.”
Even on inexperienced coverage — the place the right-wing bloc broadly agrees some trimming is required — the far proper’s demand that legal guidelines be scrapped of their entirety can be an excessive amount of for the EPP. Accepting it might danger inside fractures, provided that a few of its members assist a powerful Inexperienced Deal.
Counting on a right-wing majority would additionally increase eyebrows amongst a few of the EPP’s personal heavyweights, comparable to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who’s locked in a bitter political feud together with his nation’s nationalist conservative opposition, the Legislation and Justice social gathering. The Poles have already referred to as out EPP chief Weber’s rapprochement with hard-right forces prior to now.
On the identical time, the EPP’s Hungarian social gathering Tisza is main the opposition to Orbán.
The Socialists, nonetheless the second-largest general grouping within the Parliament, are being clear that an understanding was struck among the many centrists on the Fee’s program, and that von der Leyen might want to follow it.
“There’s a cooperation between completely different forces that has supported a Fee with a program. I wish to remind you, President von der Leyen made a speech promising sure issues, and this speech was the results of many negotiations and conferences with the president of the Socialist group,” Laura Ballarín, a Socialist MEP and former chief of employees of the Socialist group, advised POLITICO.
“If these guarantees will not be saved, we will clearly reevaluate our position.”