The president of the European Fee, Ursula von der Leyen, is flying to Scotland to satisfy instantly with President Donald Trump on Sunday, in an indication {that a} commerce cope with America’s largest buying and selling associate is within reach.
However European diplomats aren’t relying on a deal till it’s formally rolled out, after being burned earlier than by Trump’s penchant for last-minute reversals.
That’s as a result of the president’s modus operandi with regards to commerce offers is evident: He desires to deal one-on-one with overseas leaders, making use of an arm twist on the highest degree to try to eke out closing concessions. That doesn’t work as properly with the European Union, the 27-nation bloc that makes choices, actually, by committee.
That basic concern has turned the talks between the EU and the Trump administration right into a sequence of stops and begins, as negotiators painstakingly piece collectively compromises, just for them to be slapped down when introduced to Trump or European international locations. And it’s why, even because the von der Leyen-Trump assembly raises hopes of reaching a deal to keep away from a stiff U.S. tariff improve Aug. 1, they don’t seem to be relying on it.
“Nothing is agreed till the whole lot is agreed,” mentioned one EU diplomat. “I assume everybody is kind of tense,” mentioned one other.
Trump himself underscored the uncertainty Friday after touching down in Scotland for what initially was billed as a weekend golf getaway. “I might be assembly with the EU on Sunday and we might be engaged on a deal. … Ursula might be right here. A extremely revered girl. So, we stay up for that. That might be good,” he advised reporters, including, “I believe we’ve got an excellent 50-50 likelihood. That’s rather a lot.”
Requested about what points are nonetheless below dialogue, he replied, “I don’t wish to let you know what the sticking factors are. However the sticking factors are having to do with perhaps 20 various things. You don’t wish to hearken to all of them.”
Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration about coping with the EU, a bloc that he claims was created to “screw” the U.S. One senior White Home official mentioned Trump nonetheless holds out hope, nonetheless unbelievable, of chopping offers with particular person EU member international locations, notably Germany, whose influential auto sector has been pummeled by Trump’s 25 p.c tariff on vehicles and automobile elements. Per EU guidelines, nonetheless, solely the European Fee can negotiate commerce offers for member international locations, with enter from the European Parliament and the heads of state for every nation.
“Sure, it’s difficult with the EU,” mentioned the official, who was granted anonymity to explain the president’s pondering on the matter. “But when a few of these international locations had the chance to do a cope with us on their very own, they might leap on the likelihood.”
It’s true that, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has noticed on a number of events, the EU “has a collective motion drawback,” with main economies like Germany and France pushing completely different priorities and negotiating methods. Germany’s conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz has lobbied onerous for an accord that will provide some aid to the nation’s highly effective auto business, whereas French President Emmanuel Macron has led calls to powerful issues out with Trump by backing retaliatory tariffs and calling to activate the EU’s so-called commerce bazooka — the Anti-Coercion Instrument — an all-purpose weapon that will solely want supermajority help to hit again in opposition to the U.S.
However Merz and Macron met in Berlin on Wednesday and pledged to current a united entrance on commerce points throughout a sequence of conferences in search of to bolster a flailing Franco-German relationship. And EU international locations on Thursday permitted plans to retaliate with tariffs on roughly $109 billion value of U.S. items, if no deal materializes and the U.S. ratchets up its duties.
Extra problematic at this level: Trump’s penchant for including his personal last-minute spin to the commerce agreements his negotiators have spent months hashing out, generally to the purpose the place he has despatched international locations again to the negotiating desk. With every of the preliminary offers the administration has reached this summer time, Trump has held a closing name with the nation’s chief, utilizing the chance to demand extra concessions or alter key phrases in his authorities’s favor.
That won’t work with von der Leyen, who acts on behalf of the bloc’s members and doesn’t have the discretion to simply accept last-minute modifications.
“I would anticipate that there can be some latitude from the Fee,” mentioned Daniel Mullaney, a former assistant U.S. commerce consultant who negotiated with Europe. “However yeah, if one thing is available in on the final minute which is outdoors of the realm of what was consulted on with the member states, it may very well be difficult.”
The EU is at present rallying round a deal that will apply a 15 p.c tariff on items from its member states — larger than the present 10 p.c price that Trump imposed on all international locations in early April however half the 30 p.c price the president threatened in a July 12 letter.
In line with 4 diplomats, who have been granted anonymity to debate the confidential negotiations, the deal would largely mirror an accord the U.S. clinched with Japan earlier this week. Automobiles and automobile elements would additionally see their tariff decreased from the 25 p.c responsibility Trump set on all auto imports in Could to fifteen p.c. Different sectors that acquired hit by U.S. tariffs, like metal and aluminum, are nonetheless below dialogue.
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In line with one EU official, the 50 p.c tariff Trump has imposed on metal and aluminum stays a key sticking level, in addition to different sector-specific tariffs the White Home is threatening on industries like prescribed drugs, semiconductors and aerospace. “There may be whole uncertainty on that, what we will get on that,” mentioned the official, who was granted anonymity to debate the non-public conversations.
Trump on Friday performed down the probabilities of decreasing his metal tariffs, telling reporters he didn’t have a lot wiggle room to offer extra beneficiant phrases as a result of “if I do it for one, I’ve to do it for all.”
The EU has already been near a deal as soon as earlier than however has been confounded by what they see as Trump’s unpredictable habits. Members mentioned that that they had an settlement ready for Trump’s approval earlier this month however that the president rejected it as a result of it was too bureaucratic, in response to two EU officers who have been briefed on the discussions, granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks. One official mentioned Trump “smacked it down for the dearth of sufficient ‘wins.’”
A White Home official, granted anonymity to debate non-public conversations, mentioned no settlement was reached earlier this month; as a substitute, the EU had despatched a proposal, and the administration didn’t discover it appropriate. The official agreed that any closing cope with the EU might be determined by Trump. “He’s finally the one who makes the deal,” the official mentioned.
Different world leaders have confronted comparable issues — and concluded that the one solution to tackle the problem is to carry one-on-one conferences with Trump, as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is doing this weekend in Scotland. Whereas Starmer and Trump reached a preliminary commerce deal in Could to decrease some U.S. duties on British items, they’ve but to return to hash out the phrases for a promised “different association” for metal and aluminum tariffs, a prime precedence for the British authorities.
{The golfing} go to is “a possibility for the PM to construct private rapport with Trump,” mentioned one U.Ok. authorities adviser, granted anonymity to talk candidly concerning the go to. “They’ve an excellent relationship, however that is the place Starmer might want to shine in a casual setting.”
Trump has not too long ago insisted that any commerce deal would require different international locations to open their markets. The president has claimed that Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam will drop all tariffs on U.S. items as a part of their commerce agreements. Officers from these international locations, nonetheless, have both not substantiated or have publicly challenged these claims.
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On Tuesday, he introduced a cope with Japan wherein the nation has pledged to decrease tariff limitations on U.S.-made vehicles and import extra agricultural items, like rice.
Trump advised reporters Friday morning that whereas he wasn’t overly assured about reaching a cope with the EU, he was nonetheless extra optimistic than he had been about coming to phrases with Japan within the days earlier than that settlement was finalized.
“I might have mentioned we’ve got a 25 p.c likelihood with Japan. And so they saved coming again, and we made a deal,” he mentioned.
Dan Bloom and Andrew McDonald contributed to this story from London. Koen Verhelst contributed from Brussels.