KYIV — Russia misplaced 281,550 troopers in Ukraine within the first eight months of this yr, in accordance with a doc that Ukrainian intelligence says contained leaked Russian knowledge.
The listing, revealed Oct. 6, exhibits an astonishing stage of losses for minimal battlefield good points. It says that 86,744 Russians have been killed, 33,966 are lacking, 158,529 have been wounded and a pair of,311 have been captured.
Russian media web site Mediazona was skeptical about a number of the numbers. Along with the BBC, it’s conducting a mission of figuring out Russians killed in motion for the reason that conflict began, and to this point has named greater than 134,000. The issue in naming misplaced troopers means the numbers will likely be decrease than a broad estimate of casualties.
Mediazona thought that the greater than 5,000 Russians killed on the entrance line alongside the Dnieper River was too excessive, however the Ukrainian navy mentioned some Russian forces from the that area have been redeployed to japanese Ukraine, which has seen a number of the bloodiest preventing to this point this yr.
Worldwide open intelligence group Frontelligence Perception advised POLITICO the leaked doc seems to be pretty correct and corresponds to the group’s personal estimates.
“The figures we had at the moment carefully align with these within the doc, suggesting the revealed quantity falls throughout the anticipated vary,” it mentioned.
Different on-line intelligence teams finding out the conflict concur.
The statistics spotlight the wasteful means the Kremlin is preventing the conflict and the influence of the drone warfare that Ukrainian forces are conducting towards the Russians.
“Because of the lack of a standard system of evacuating the wounded from the battlefield, there are only one.3 wounded troopers per one lifeless. This alerts a low stage of survival of the wounded, who’re poorly skilled in tactical medication and are normally deserted with out assist after damage,” says the report. It was ready by the Ukrainian navy intelligence hotline referred to as “I need to reside,” aimed toward Russian troops prepared to give up, and accompanies the Russian knowledge.
In different wars, the ratio of killed to wounded is nearer to 1-to-3, underlining that Russia is just not rescuing its troopers.
General, Russian losses are estimated at over 1 million lifeless, wounded and lacking for the reason that Kremlin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainian Normal Employees has reported. It calculates that Russia loses about 1,000 troopers a day.
In February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy estimated that over 46,000 Ukrainian troopers had been killed for the reason that begin of the conflict and 390,000 have been wounded.
Ukraine’s numbers are decrease as a result of it has largely been on the protection, whereas attackers are likely to endure greater casualties. Ukraine has additionally made extra of an effort to rescue and deal with its wounded troopers.
“Relating to losses … Russian casualties are thrice better than ours,” Zelenskyy mentioned throughout a gathering with journalists in August.
Russia inches ahead
These huge numbers of lifeless and wounded troopers are the results of Russia persevering with to press ahead on a number of factors of the entrance line. That technique has succeeded in stretching Ukrainian forces skinny.
“This yr, the entrance line has elevated by about 200 kilometers. As well as, we nonetheless have 2,400 kilometers the place there aren’t any fight operations, however we should additionally hold our troops there,” Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s high military commander, advised journalists in Kyiv on the finish of September.
“As for the final scenario on the entrance, it stays troublesome. The enemy continues to advance on the primary instructions, particularly Pokrovsk and Dobropillia instructions. In different instructions, the scenario is characterised by low-intensity fight operations. Normally, the scenario is underneath our management,” Syrskyi mentioned.
In a bid to spice up numbers, recruitment advertisements have flooded Ukrainian streets, media and even despatched as messages to folks’s cellphones.
Russia can be going through its personal troubles. Some areas pay recruits a sign-up bonus of as a lot as 2.5 million rubles (€26,000), however reviews on the loss of life charge and terrible situations are filtering by way of to Russia, making recruitment troublesome.
The Institute for the Examine of Conflict, a Washington suppose tank, estimated that Russia is signing up a mean of 31,600 troopers a month, however is struggling a mean of 35,193 casualties monthly.
“Russian forces seem ready and prepared to maintain these casualty charges regardless of reaching restricted tactical advances,” ISW concluded.
Attempting to find new recruits
Russia’s rising recruitment efforts in Africa and the Center East additionally counsel it’s discovering it tougher to enroll new troopers at residence. Frontelligence Perception has obtained a number of thousand information with private particulars of African and Center Jap residents preventing for Russia in Ukraine, and has seen a big uptick in exercise.
“For instance, one dataset of 1,045 sign-up information exhibits that between 2023 and 2024, 394 folks from Africa and the Center East signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Protection, whereas in simply the primary half of 2025, 651 contracts have been recorded — almost double the earlier tempo,” Frontelligence Perception mentioned.
Russian efforts to recruit overseas have centered on economically deprived international locations. Recruits are sometimes lured with guarantees of life-changing cash, generally equal to just about a decade of common native wages, in addition to assurances (usually fraudulent) of noncombat roles akin to cooks, the group mentioned.
General, Frontelligence Perception analytics see a significant pattern throughout the Russian military: rising sign-up bonuses, expanded recruitment from these held in pretrial detention and rising stress on conscripts to signal contracts with the Russian protection ministry and be despatched into Ukraine.
“All of this means that Russia is struggling to maintain recruitment through conventional financial strategies. If this pattern continues, the Kremlin will face a selection between resorting to drastic measures akin to broader mobilization or confronting the identical manpower shortages which have been an issue for Ukraine’s navy for the previous two years,” the analysts mentioned.
As soon as in Ukraine, these Russian troops face lethal situations. Ukrainian drones hunt particular person troopers, artillery and rockets hit provide strains and utilizing armored automobiles is now uncommon as a result of the dangers of being hit are so excessive. Troopers utilized in “meat wave” assaults report staggering casualties.
“In June 2025, our crew assessed that Russia was shedding roughly 8,400–10,500 personnel monthly as killed in motion,” mentioned Frontelligence Perception.