If Wes Streeting’s supporters in parliament had been on the lookout for an excuse to indicate some ankle, they got it a couple of weeks in the past. On the extraordinary night in November when No 10 figures accused the Well being Secretary of plotting a management coup, one thing snapped. “They made an enormous mistake making us select between Keir and Wes,” one average Labour MP stated, all pretence of supporting Starmer’s management gone. Now, because the Well being Secretary enters parliament’s Stranger’s Bar, colleagues declare “there’s our subsequent prime minister”, with No 10 aides barely out of earshot.
Downing Avenue is performing like that sorry saga by no means occurred. Streeting himself is getting on with the day job. “He’s the one declared candidate,” is how one admirer places it. “All he must do is keep there, preserve constructing hospitals, and wait.” The sense of inevitability to a management contest in Might – if not earlier than – has not abated. Streeting’s supporters consider he’s in pole place.
However then, on the finish of November, the Instances reported that Streeting’s allies had been calling for a coronation reasonably than a contest to put in him as Labour chief, in all probability after the Might elections. Although Streeting’s spokespeople are adamant that they don’t converse for the Well being Secretary, the article provoked a backlash. Main figures from the smooth left – the mushy center of the Parliamentary Labour Get together – informed me the concept of a Streeting coronation was “far-fetched” and “insulting”.
Some soft-left MPs privately again Streeting as a result of they consider he represents the very best likelihood of holding their seats. However many are decided to cease him, regardless of his overtures, as a result of he hails from a essentially completely different celebration custom. The smooth left’s major downside, nevertheless, as one Streeting supporter gleefully famous to me, is that they haven’t settled on a rival candidate to defeat him.
There are numerous names within the combine. Andy Burnham, the “King over the Water”, faces a tough route again to parliament – although it’s “not unattainable”, say one particular person near the Nationwide Govt Committee, the physique that will determine whether or not he could possibly be the candidate in a by-election. Louise Haigh, the previous transport secretary, has emerged as a commentator – for instance, she wrote an essay and a Finances response for the New Statesman – in what one supporter sees as a pitch for the chancellor place. Others suspect she has designs on the highest job.
The Tradition Secretary, Lisa Nandy, is one other identify mentioned amongst MPs. She stood towards Starmer within the 2020 management race. Her cupboard colleague Ed Miliband, the Web Zero Secretary, has dominated himself out however is believed to want a significant position in shaping the concepts of whoever would possibly come subsequent. In all of this, the Tribune group can be influential. The revived caucus for the center of the celebration has greater than 80 MP members – sufficient to appoint a candidate if all of them agreed on one. Haigh and Justin Madders, an Angela Rayner ally, sit on its committee.
However the largest query mark is over Rayner herself: is it her ambition to be PM? “If Angela needed to be prime minister she already can be,” one admiring Blairite says – as a result of she may have stood towards Starmer in 2020 and received. She has a vibrant life outdoors of politics and has been genuinely unsettled by the intrusion into her household that comes with being a senior politician, in addition to by the threats to her security. Her resignation from cupboard may have been the top of all that – if she needed it to be.
And but, and but. When the decision got here from I’m a Celeb… Get Me Out of Right here to enter the jungle after she resigned, Rayner stated no. She isn’t completed with politics.
Rayner regarded on with anger when Rachel Reeves was defended by the federal government over her rental licence error, in a method her stamp responsibility affairs weren’t. She has been damage by what she sees because the double requirements. The previous deputy PM has additionally been retaining a detailed eye on Streeting’s manoeuvrings. “I don’t assume she needs to face, however she would stand to cease Wes,” one pal tells me.
Rayner wants time to rebuild after her resignation. It’s no coincidence that her strongest parliamentary allies make the calm, sober case for taking their time selecting a alternative prime minister, whereas lots of Streeting’s MP supporters say there’s none to waste. If or when there’s a management contest, Rayner may have a lot to achieve politically however a lot to lose personally.
However developments on Rayner’s beloved staff’ rights package deal have introduced her identify up once more before she may need been anticipating. There have been questions on whether or not a compromise within the Employment Rights Invoice (safety from unfair dismissal “from day one” has now develop into safety after six months) would immediate MPs to insurgent. Rayner was offended, and met with allies on 1 December to plan a response. She intends to put an modification forcing the federal government to implement the unfair dismissal protections in 2026, as a substitute of 2027. Her fear is that the federal government will attempt to dilute the laws additional. She is set to stop that from taking place.
Rayner is again and reminding MPs of her energy. She is combating for a coverage programme meaning lots to her, and within the course of, demonstrating the next she nonetheless maintains. How that performs out together with her former colleagues in authorities is one query. However the extra necessary one is whether or not what occurs within the subsequent couple of weeks is merely a rehearsal for extra severe organising to return.
[Further reading: Inside the battle to lead Your Party]