Jaywick, a coastal village in Clacton, is essentially the most disadvantaged village in England and Wales. It was essentially the most disadvantaged ten years in the past. Since then it’s got worse.
The deprivation index asks easy however important questions: the place are essentially the most and least disadvantaged elements of Britain right this moment? The place is it getting higher? The place is it getting worse? The briefing notice accompanying this swathe of recent stats tells us the speed of kids residing in earnings disadvantaged households is up. In London it’s up by an eye-watering quantity. In 2019 throughout the Tower Hamlets borough it was 27 per cent; now it’s 72 per cent. Amongst older individuals it was 44 per cent in 2019; now it’s 62 per cent.
That is however one snapshot of a beastly sequence of stats. The combination deprivation rating by neighbourhood is vital, although just a little complicated. It could possibly imply various things to completely different areas. Plush houses and their long-driveways can rank excessive for relative deprivation if there are few jobs or sources of schooling and earnings – if, basically, that neighbourhood is pensioner-heavy. That’s what this information is telling us right this moment.
What, then, is the important thing takeaway from the index? Locations that had been disadvantaged six years in the past have principally stayed the identical or worsened.
Bloomfield, a neighbourhood hidden from the Blackpool seafront by the city’s soccer stadium, ranks prime because the ward (geographies represented by councillors) with the very best degree of deprivation in England and Wales. Weeds encroaching on the roads and pavements as degree as Everest could sound like what lots of England has needed to put up with for the very best a part of 20 years. However in Bloomfield that is coupled with an absence of job and schooling alternatives, all of the whereas its residents rely extra on welfare than a steady earnings.
Notable within the numbers is what’s modified since 2019. The larger deprivation will increase come not within the north however the south, in Golders Inexperienced, Barnet (sure, actually); Bowbrook in Wychavon (Dorset), Martock in Somerset, St Stephen’s in Canterbury, Brede in Rother (Sussex), and the harbourside of Gosport. Handsworth ward in Birmingham, as soon as 127th for many disadvantaged, now ranks fifteenth. Springfield in Hackney, 754th in 2019, is now one centesimal. Witham ward in Boston, now a Reform bastion, as soon as 1,636th for essentially the most disadvantaged ward in England and Wales, is now 538th.
Areas the place pro-Gaza Unbiased candidates gained final yr have on common seen deprivation rise by greater than different events. Inexperienced and Labour wins come on common in areas the place deprivation has gone down during the last years, whereas for wards gained by Conservative, Lib Dem, Plaid and Reform candidates, deprivation has gone up.
What does all this inform us? The focus of the very best deprivation rises these previous six years seem to disproportionately have an effect on the south, not the north.
This could possibly be defined in a number of methods. An overheated housing market has these trying to work in Brighton, to call however one instance, search houses additional afield on the Sussex coast, be it in Hastings or Worthing, Peacehaven or Rye. And a few of these smaller elements, unprepared for the inflow of these on the lookout for a spot to reside and commute, merely can’t cope. As soon as Tory cities, quaint however low-cost, having solely lately turned Labour, at the moment are on the mercy of a housing market displacing the younger of their path. These districts, with budgets stretched to cowl inflated social care prices greater than the rest, now should take care of placing further individuals up in motels at nice expense.
These are the locations the place deprivation over the previous six years has risen essentially the most. Toxteth, in Liverpool, in the meantime, has seen the extent of deprivation fall. Though it’s nonetheless in essentially the most 100 disadvantaged wards, it has dropped 10pts for deprivation rating and 59 locations from 14th to 73rd. The native council and quite a few charities have performed heaps to carry this space again to life, and it’s beginning to present.
Though deprivation has on common gone down in Labour constituencies, Britain’s most disadvantaged districts voted Labour on the final election. The highest ten per cent most disadvantaged wards on common went for Labour by 45 per cent to Reform on 19 per cent. The Tories had been humbled in these elements in 2024, selecting up solely 16 per cent. Against this, Britain’s least disadvantaged wards voted 32 per cent Tory, and 26 per cent Labour. The Lib Dems’ personal foray into straightforward and prosperous Residence Counties England exhibits up right here too, at 21 per cent. But when an election had been held right this moment, these scores bear little in frequent with public feeling on the bottom proper now.
Within the prime ten per cent most disadvantaged wards, Labour would fall from 45 per cent to 26 per cent. Reform would surge by greater than double its share final yr to win (on common) 40 per cent of the vote. The Greens would come third with ten per cent. The least disadvantaged locales in England and Wales, in the meantime, could be cut up 4 methods. Reform would eke out a tiny lead with 25 per cent – carefully adopted by 23 per cent for the Lib Dems, 23 per cent for the Conservatives and 19 per cent for Labour. Notably, the Greens would ballot as effectively in Britain’s least disadvantaged locales as it might essentially the most disadvantaged.
That is the state of the nation in 2025, a Britain the place deprivation is just not the reserve of the north, however all corners, city and rural, left-behind seaside resorts and London suburbs effectively served by a tube community. Policymaking appreciably has targeted on the elements of the north best between one celebration and one other. And it looks like it’s going to remain that strategy to stave off the advancing Faragistas. However to put in writing off Britain’s deprivation debate as a northern and coastal phenomenon is a poor analyst’s fantasy. Britain has obtained worse over the previous six years. Some neighbourhoods, saddled with new-build estates and well-salaried mortgage-payers as well, are coming to life. However pockets of deprivation are nearly all over the place.
[Further reading: Could Labour afford to break its tax pledges]