Would a pledge to rejoin the EU rescue Labour on the polls?
Labour’s low recognition is a consequence of the next: voters’ looser loyalty to events; the federal government’s similarity to the one voters booted out with gusto final yr; and little aid from a still-present disaster in the price of residing. Immigration dominates the discourse proper now, however the price of residing stays probably the most salient voter-issue. Not solely is that this pulling Labour again, it’s driving Reform forward.
There are strategies, although the federal government has not introduced something, that the occasion may rejuvenate its base by promising to rejoin the European Union.
The pledge may, in principle, rally and unite probably the most Stay-minded. Labour is at present leaking nearly one in ten supporters to the Liberal Democrats. And Stay voters did vote for Keir Starmer’s occasion final yr. And Rejoin is the plurality possibility proper now. However Stay-minded voters should not single-minded of their politics. Ukip was the harbinger of the EU referendum, although Ukip primarily bought its votes not for bashing the Brussels Paperwork, however for anticipating the nation on immigration.
To Britain’s Stay voters, it’s not Rejoin or nothing. At greatest, it could be a acquire of some hundred thousand votes – a number of proportion factors within the opinion polls.
Additionally, a vow to rejoin can’t be executed in isolation. It gained’t come with out penalties. It might imply sacrificing air-time on one thing else.
There can be gross positive factors for Labour in placing Rejoin on the poll. However there can be web losses on the poll field.
Rejoin often is the desire of the median Briton. But it surely’s not the precedence of the median Briton. An efficient marketing campaign understands when to go in arduous on its consolation points. Rejoin is a consolation problem. That is no time for consolation points.
July polling by BMG means that, when requested in the event that they most popular to Rejoin or keep out, most need in. That features nearly a fifth of Reform voters. And 1 / 4 of Labour supporters who wish to keep out. If Labour was to reopen the injuries of 2016 it could threaten the shaky, now hollowed, however nonetheless victorious coalition that gave it the advantage of the doubt in 2024.
I used to be in Brussels in June, talking about the way forward for UK-EU relations and public opinion, on each side of the Channel.
On the (delayed) flight over, I used to be having a muse. Do these Brussels bigwigs wish to know whether or not the UK’s voters are clamouring to Rejoin? I ready some notes. However through the periods nothing about it got here up. I requested the thinkers within the room why Brussels isn’t eager about whether or not Britons wish to come again?
They suppose it’s not going to occur. Not for this technology. All of them know Rejoin shouldn’t be on the agenda. Unravelling the brand new relationship after unravelling EU membership shouldn’t be for one-term events. Solely when there’s a cross-party consensus on the problem will the intense gamers take Rejoin severely.
We’re nowhere close to that. Placing Rejoin on the poll is the stuff of unserious individuals. It’s one thing for one more decade.
[See also: The Epping ruling deepens Labour’s immigration nightmare]