The president of the European Fee, Ursula von der Leyen, is flying to Scotland to fulfill instantly with President Donald Trump on Sunday, in an indication {that a} commerce take care of America’s largest buying and selling accomplice is within reach.
However European diplomats aren’t relying on a deal till it’s formally rolled out, after being burned earlier than by Trump’s penchant for last-minute reversals.
That’s as a result of the president’s modus operandi in relation to commerce offers is evident: He desires to deal one-on-one with overseas leaders, making use of an arm twist on the highest degree to attempt to eke out ultimate concessions. That doesn’t work as nicely with the European Union, the 27-nation bloc that makes selections, actually, by committee.
That elementary challenge has turned the talks between the EU and the Trump administration right into a sequence of stops and begins, as negotiators painstakingly piece collectively compromises, just for them to be slapped down when offered to Trump or European international locations. And it’s why, even because the von der Leyen-Trump assembly raises hopes of reaching a deal to keep away from a stiff U.S. tariff improve Aug. 1, they aren’t relying on it.
“Nothing is agreed till every part is agreed,” stated one EU diplomat. “I assume everybody is kind of tense,” stated one other.
Trump himself underscored the uncertainty Friday after touching down in Scotland for what initially was billed as a weekend golf getaway. “I will probably be assembly with the EU on Sunday and we will probably be engaged on a deal. … Ursula will probably be right here. A extremely revered girl. So, we look ahead to that. That will probably be good,” he instructed reporters, including, “I believe we’ve a superb 50-50 likelihood. That’s so much.”
Requested about what points are nonetheless beneath dialogue, he replied, “I don’t wish to inform you what the sticking factors are. However the sticking factors are having to do with possibly 20 various things. You don’t wish to take heed to all of them.”
Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration about coping with the EU, a bloc that he claims was created to “screw” the U.S. One senior White Home official stated Trump nonetheless holds out hope, nonetheless inconceivable, of reducing offers with particular person EU member international locations, notably Germany, whose influential auto sector has been pummeled by Trump’s 25 p.c tariff on automobiles and automotive elements. Per EU guidelines, nonetheless, solely the European Fee can negotiate commerce offers for member international locations, with enter from the European Parliament and the heads of state for every nation.
“Sure, it’s difficult with the EU,” stated the official, who was granted anonymity to explain the president’s pondering on the matter. “But when a few of these international locations had the chance to do a take care of us on their very own, they might bounce on the likelihood.”
It’s true that, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has noticed on a number of events, the EU “has a collective motion drawback,” with main economies like Germany and France pushing totally different priorities and negotiating methods. Germany’s conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz has lobbied onerous for an accord that may provide some reduction to the nation’s highly effective auto trade, whereas French President Emmanuel Macron has led calls to robust issues out with Trump by backing retaliatory tariffs and calling to activate the EU’s so-called commerce bazooka — the Anti-Coercion Instrument — an all-purpose weapon that may solely want supermajority assist to hit again in opposition to the U.S.
However Merz and Macron met in Berlin on Wednesday and pledged to current a united entrance on commerce points throughout a sequence of conferences in search of to bolster a flailing Franco-German relationship. And EU international locations on Thursday permitted plans to retaliate with tariffs on roughly $109 billion price of U.S. items, if no deal materializes and the U.S. ratchets up its duties.
Extra problematic at this level: Trump’s penchant for including his personal last-minute spin to the commerce agreements his negotiators have spent months hashing out, generally to the purpose the place he has despatched international locations again to the negotiating desk. With every of the preliminary offers the administration has reached this summer time, Trump has held a ultimate name with the nation’s chief, utilizing the chance to demand further concessions or alter key phrases in his authorities’s favor.
That will not work with von der Leyen, who acts on behalf of the bloc’s members and doesn’t have the discretion to just accept last-minute adjustments.
“I’d anticipate that there can be some latitude from the Fee,” stated Daniel Mullaney, a former assistant U.S. commerce consultant who negotiated with Europe. “However yeah, if one thing is available in on the final minute which is exterior of the realm of what was consulted on with the member states, it might be difficult.”