A European court docket ruling on fishing rights that threatens to derail Sir Keir Starmer's Brexit reset is predicted on Monday.
The tribunal will determine whether or not the UK should drop its ban on sand eel fishing designed to guard endangered puffins after it was challenged by the EU.
The ruling comes at a important second, simply weeks earlier than a landmark UK-EU summit on Might 19 the place the Prime Minister hopes to safe a safety and defence pact.
Whichever means the court docket guidelines, it threatens to disrupt extremely delicate negotiations between London and Brussels over fishing rights.
The present UK-EU settlement on European trawlers' entry to British waters expires in 2026.
If the tribunal guidelines towards the UK, forcing Britain to drop its ban, it might make it politically tough for Starmer to compromise on fishing and different areas.
If it guidelines towards the EU, coastal international locations with giant fishing industries might drag the problem into wider negotiations.
The EU, led by coastal member states equivalent to France and Denmark, has been insisting that the UK should agree a brand new deal on fishing rights to safe a defence cope with Brussels.
This demand comes towards the desires of different EU members like Germany and Poland.
The sand eels ruling will arrive simply three weeks earlier than the summit the place Starmer is trying to finalise a defence settlement.
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This timing creates a big problem for the Prime Minister's Brexit reset technique.
Starmer just isn’t anticipated to conform to giving the EU extra catch, fearing political backlash within the UK.
Nevertheless, he’s keen to make a top level view dedication to sustaining current quotas for a number of years slightly than returning to annual negotiations.
The PM maintains a defence pact shouldn’t be conditional on fishing preparations.
He’s anticipated to make this case when assembly European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen in London on Thursday.
An EU supply described the assembly as "clearly an necessary stepping stone in direction of the summit".
A European diplomatic supply stated the UK will probably want to supply "a bit extra" than a top level view dedication on fishing, "particularly if a defence and safety deal is struck on the similar time".
The EU can even push for a "clear intention" to strike a youth mobility deal on the summit.
Cupboard ministers stay divided on the problem, with Rachel Reeves and Brexit reset chief Nick Thomas-Symonds reportedly favouring a youth mobility deal.
Residence Secretary Yvette Cooper is claimed to be sceptical because of her purpose of reducing immigration.
Sir Nick Harvey, the Liberal Democrat former armed forces minister, welcomed potential compromise on youth mobility.
The European Motion CEO stated: "The information that the Authorities appears to be significantly contemplating a youth mobility scheme with the EU has been a very long time coming."
The Prime Minister's spokesman responded by reiterating crimson traces: "No return to freedom of motion, the customs union or single market."
He added that it’s "important we get web migration down."